And are charters pushing students onto neighborhood schools?
Is it theoretically possible that 100% of the students leaving the schools are leaving the district and 100% of the students entering the schools are moving to the district? The data you have access to doesn't allow us to determine that, right?
I don't think you can make the case that charters are not counseling kids out based solely on Quantitative data. You definitely need to look at subgroups. Truthfully, all of the schools counsel kids out and as you said neighborhood schools bear the brunt. Admission schools counsel "hard" kids out, neighborhood schools counsel "hard" out of boundary kids out. The design of our school accountability systems encourages that behavior and our neighborhood school system gives them an out. Maybe we need a program like OSSE has for special Ed where the school has to explain/prove why they can't serve the student and OSSE needs to say whether that is true.
I'd be interested to know if there is a connection between school Tier (aka performance) and students leaving mid-year. Also, it looks like the most-left school was Friendship Online, which isn't necessarily surprising, since I have heard that they work with a lot of homeschool and military families. Not sure if that is actually the case.